Just when you thought the Kentucky Derby picture couldn’t get more dramatic, a new contender emerges from the shadows, and his name is Nearly. Days after the heartbreaking announcement that champion colt Ted Noffey was sidelined with bone bruising, Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher stepped into the spotlight with Nearly, proving he’s a force to be reckoned with in the $275,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park on January 31. But here’s where it gets controversial: is Nearly truly Derby material, or is this just a fleeting moment of glory? Let’s dive in.
In a race that tested both speed and stamina, Nearly chased down Cannoneer through blistering early fractions of :22.82 and :45.96 in the 1 1/16-mile dirt race. The real magic happened after six furlongs, timed in 1:10.32, when Nearly seized control, showcasing his dominance around the second turn and down the stretch. Piloted by Hall of Famer John Velazquez, he pulled away to defeat Bravaro, crossing the finish line in 1:44.52 on a fast track. Owned by Centennial Farms and sired by Not This Time, Nearly paid $5.40 to win, leaving fans wondering if this is the start of something special.
And this is the part most people miss: the Holy Bull Stakes isn’t just about winning—it’s about earning qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. Nearly secured 20 points, with Bravaro (10), Project Ace (6), Cannoneer (4), and Global Aviator (2) also earning their spots in the standings. But with the Derby’s 20-horse limit, these points are more than just numbers—they’re a ticket to greatness. Or are they? Some argue that points don’t always predict Derby success. What do you think? Does Nearly have what it takes to go all the way?
Earlier in the day, another star stole the show: Solitude Dude. Chris Fountoukis’ undefeated colt dominated the $150,000 Swale Stakes, covering 7 furlongs in a jaw-dropping 1:23.46 as the overwhelming favorite. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is confident, calling him a “high-quality horse” with Grade 1 ability. But here’s the twist: can he handle two turns? Joseph hints at a possible route in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) on February 28, but even he admits, “Time will tell.” Is Solitude Dude the real deal, or is he better suited to shorter distances? The debate is on.
Rounding out the Swale Stakes, Todd Pletcher’s Class President finished second, with Joseph’s Hammond taking third. As the Derby trail heats up, one thing is clear: this year’s contenders are full of surprises. What’s your take? Is Nearly the next Derby champion, or is Solitude Dude the dark horse to watch? Let us know in the comments—we’re all ears!
